Feb 26st 2013

 

Outlook on Major Pairs - EUR/USD Forecast

 

 

• EUR/USD on the Daily chart is still in a Bearish trend with next Bearish target is @ 1.414% Fibonacci level 1.3027 and then 1.618% Fibonacci level 1.2928.

• The pair is currently creating a Bullish harmonic pattern with Bullish target @ 1.3670.

Conclusion: I anticipate EUR/USD to remain Bearish in the short-term then consolidate around levels 1.300 - 1.284 before turning Bullish with long-term target @ 1.3670.

Result: So far Bearish consolidation reached @ levels 1.300 - 1.284
 

 

USD/CAD Bearish targets @ 1.0063/1.0020/0.9995.

 

 

• USD/CAD on the Daily chart has completed a Bullish ABC correction.

• The pair had also reached 1.902% Fibonacci level from the last pullback.

• Also the pair has reached the first target of the previous breakout @ 1.0171.

Conclusion: I anticipate USD/CAD to turn Bearish with targets @ 1.0063/1.0020/0.9995.

Bullish: A continuation of the current Bullish trend could see the pair reach 261.8% Fibonacci level @ 1.0232.

Also the next Bullish targets of the previous breakout are @ 1.0209/1.0223.

Bearish: While the pair remains below the ABC correction target @ level 1.0172 Bearish targets are @ 1.0063/1.0020/0.9995.

Result: Bullish breakout targets reached @ 1.0209/1.0223. Bearish targets still remain @ 1.0063/1.0020/0.9995 ...

Feb 8th 2013

 

Outlook on Major Pairs - EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, USD/CHF

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, USD/CHF are losing momentum and present the following pull-back risks:

• EUR/USD pull-back risk to near the previous high creating a double-top @ 1.3670, before turning Bearish.

• GBP/USD pull-back risk to near the previous low creating a double-bottom @ 1.5658, before turning Bullish.

• USD/CHF pull-back risk to near the previous low creating a double-bottom @ 0.9050, before turning Bullish.

• EUR/GBP pull-back risk to near the previous high creating a double-top @ 0.8675, before turning Bearish.

Conclusion:

Should the Major pairs pull-back to recent Highs and Lows this would create double-tops and double-bottoms giving the pairs the required reversal momentum to meet my anticipated Medium-term targets:

EUR/USD @ 1.3000

GBP/USD @ 1.6280

USD/CHF @ 0.9232

EUR/GBP @ 0.8160

Results:

Result so far USDCHF..

Result so far GBPUSD..

Result so far EURUSD..

Result so far EURGBP.. ...
 

Feb 5th 2013

 

GBP/USD Outlook

• GBP/USD on the Weekly chart has broken below 1st wave correction target @ 1.5742 and now @ 1.414% Fibonacci from the correction.

• The pair is also approaching trend line resistance.

 

Conclusion: I anticipate GBP/USD turn Bullish with long-term target @ 1.6280.

Bearish: A reversal from the trend line and 1.414% Fibonacci could see the pair reach previous high around the 1.6280 level in the longer term.

Bullish: A complete break of the trend line resistance could see the pair reach 2nd and 3rd targets @ 1.5519/1.5390.

 

Result: So far GBP/USD has reversed from the 1.414% Fibonacci and trend line.. ...
 

Feb 4th 2013

 

EUR/USD Medium-Term Outlook

• EUR/USD on the Weekly chart has hit the 200% Fibonacci level @ 1.3675.

• The next Key level is at 261.8% Fibonacci level @ 1.3988.

• The pair has created a Four-wave correction pattern with targets @ 1.3062/1.2808/1.2661.

Conclusion:

I anticipate a Bearish Reversal with Medium-term target @ 1.3000 and strong support @ levels - 1.3225/1.3025/1.3000.

• Bearish: Trend reversal - targets @ 1.3062/1.2808/1.2661.

• Bullish: Trend continuation - target @ 1.3988.

 

Result: Medium-term target has been reached @ 1.3000 ...


USD/CAD Medium-Term Outlook

• USD/CAD has a current Bullish signal on the 4 Hour chart andBearish signal on the Daily chart.

• On the Daily chart USDCAD remains in a Bearish trend with the1 st Bearish target @ 0.9852.

• On the 4 Hour chart Bullish 4-ware correction pattern targets@ 1.0012/1.0036/1.0049

• Also the 'projected path indicator' has a Bullish target @1.0086 and the previous Level 3 target is at target 1.0095.

Conclusion:

I anticipate USD/CAD to remain Bearish in the Short-Term before turning Bullish with medium-Term targets@ 1.0012/1.0036/1.0049 and final target @ 1.0095.   

Result: As anticipate USD/CAD remained Bearish in the Short-Term before turning Bullish. ...

NZD\USD Short-Term Outlook

• NZD\USD on 4 hour has created a 3-wave correction pattern with Bearish targets @ 0.8366/0.8321/0.8295.

Conclusion:

I anticipate NZD\USD to stay bearish in the short-term. while the pair remains below level 0.8482 bearish targets @ 0.8366/0.8321/0.8295.

Result: As anticipate NZD\USD moved lower to reach the predicted bearish targets. ...
  Jan 31st 2013

 

EURGBP @ Monthly Resistance

• EURGBP has met Monthly resistance @ 0.8597.

• First Target of previous monthly 3-wave correction met @ 0.8575.

Conclusion:Medium-term target remains @ 0.8160 level.

Result: So far the pair is moving lower as anticipate. ...
  Jan 29th 2013

 

USD/CHF Stalls at Key Reversal\Resistance zone

• USD/CFF on the 4 Hour Chart has completed an AB=CD pattern @ 0.9197 level.

• The pair has reached Fibonacci level at 0.707% low that matches the previous high also at 0.707% Fibonacci.

• The pair has also reached Fibonacci level at 1.414% low that equals the current low plus the previous high Fibonacci levels.

Conclusion: When Fibonacci levels match this creates strong resistance.

I anticipate resistance and potential Bullish pullback @ 0.9197 - resistance zone @ 0.9216 / 0.9177.
Result: Bullish pullback @ 0.9197 seen the pair move back above resistance zone to 0.9227 level. ...
 

Jan 28th 2013

 

EUR/USD Medium-Term Outlook

• EUR/USD on the Weekly chart has reached the 1.618% Fibonacci level @ 1.3479.

• Next Key levels are at 1.902% Fibonacci level @ 1.3623 & 200% Fibonacci level @ 1.3672.

• EUR/USD has not not made a Trend Top Pattern yet but the pair have created a Four-wave correction pattern with targets @ 1.2974/1.2776/1.2661.

Conclusion:I anticipate a Bearish Reversal in the Medium-term with target @ 1.2974.

Bearish: Trend reversal - targets @ 1.2974 / 1.2776 / 1.2661

Bullish:Trend continuation - targets @ 1.3623 / 1.3672
Result: As anticipate the pair did move highter to reach 200% Fibonacci level before a sharp reversal. ....
 

Jan 25th 2013

 

EUR/GBP Stalls at Key zone

• EUR/GBP on the Daily has reached the 1.902% Fibonacci level @ 0.8534.

• The next Key level is 200% Fibonacci level @ 0.8574.

• Daily Stochastic overbought.

Conclusion:

I anticipate a potential Bearish pullback - Medium-term target @ 0.8160 level.

Result: So far so good.. ....
 

Jan 24nd 2013

 

GBP/USD outlook

• GBP/USD on the 4 hour chart is still within a Key zone @ 1.5895 - 1.5804

• Reversal zone represents the completion of a large AB=CD pattern.

Conclusion:

Bullish: A breakout above 1.5895 could see the pair reach target @ 1.6283/1.6352.

Bearish: A breakout below 1.5804 could see the pair reach target @ 1.5742/1.5519/1.5390.

Result: The pair broke out to the downside and reached first target @ 1.5742. ....

Jan 22nd 2013

 

EUR/USD Medium -Term Outlook

• On the 4 hour chart EUR/USD has completed the previous 3-Wave correction Pattern @ 1.3398

• This Bullish move has also created a Bearish Double-Top Pattern.

Conclusion:

A break of the current Trend-line could see the pair reach Bearish target @ 1.3018.

Result: Target met on 26th Feb .... ....
 

Jan 18th 2013

 

GBP/USD Key Reversal @ 1.5858 level

• GBP/USD on the 4 hour chart is approaching a Key Reversal @ 1.5858 level.

• Level 1.5858 represent the completion of a large AB=CD pattern.

• Level 1.5858 is the Level 3 target of a previous 3-wave correction pattern.

Conclusion: I anticipate a potential Bullish reversal around level 1.5858.

 

• A breakout of trend lines to the upside could see a minimum Bullish target reaching Fibonacci 161.8% - Target @ 1.6283.
  Result: ....
  
  EUR/GBP Medium-Term Bearish - Target @ 0.8160 level

  • EUR/GBP on the Weekly chart has broken-out of a Bullish Head & Shoulders Bottom pattern.

  • Price has not yet reached minimum pattern breakout targets @ Fibonacci levels 161.8% & 200%.

  
  
  
  Conclusion: In the Medium-term I anticipate a potential Bearish pull-back to the H&S neckline - Target @ 0.8160 level.

  
  
• In the short-Term EUR/GBP could move higher to reach minimum Fibonacci 161.8 @ 0.8415 level.
  
• A full break of the neckline could see EUR/GBP reach Bearish targets @ 0.8124/0.8021/0.7961.
  

  Result: ....
  
  

  Jan 14th 2013

   

  
  USD/CHF Medium-Term Outlook

   

• On the 4 hour charts USD/CHF is currently in a new 3-wave pattern Bullish reversal with targets @ 0.9211/0.9250/0.9273.

   



 

Conclusion: I anticipated USD/CHF to reach between targets 0.9250-0.9273.

 

Result: As I anticipated USD/CHF reached exactly between targets 0.9250-0.9273.

After a small pullback price also reached final target @ 0.9273. ....

EUR/USD Medium-Term Outlook

 

• On the 4 hour charts EUR/USD is currently in a new Bullish Trend from last week, but as USD/CHF has turned Bullish today so I expect the EUR/USD to turn Bearish. The current EUR/USD Bullish trend began before all the previous 3-wave pattern targets were met so I expect a bearish reversal could reach target @ 1.3018.

   

  Conclusion: I anticipated EUR/USD to reverse sharply to a Bearish trend with Bearish targets @ 13.235/13.045/13.018

• Result: Result so far ....
  
  
• Target met on 26th Feb ....
    Jan 8th 2013

   

  
  GBP/USD in a short-term range on 4 hour chart

   

  • On the 4 hour chart GBP/USD is in a short-term sideways range.

  • Using Fibonacci extensions of price ranges I can determine a minimum breakout on the downside could reach 161.8 Fibonacci Level @ 1.5950.

  • A breakout to the upside could reach 423.6 Fibonacci level @ 1.6280.

  
  Conclusion: I anticipated GBP/USD could stay in the following range this week:

  • Bullish: On the upside target @ 1.6280 level.

  • Bearish: On the downside target @ 1.5950 level.

  Result: GBP/USD did breakout to the downside before turning bullish as I suggested in the chart above -Targets not reached just yet. ....
  
  EUR/USD completed a Bullish corrective 3-wave pattern

   

  • Last week EUR/USD completed a Bullish corrective 3-wave pattern from 1.300 level with targets not yet reached.

  • Today EUR/USD has also completed a Bearish corrective 3-wave pattern from 1.3140 level with targets not yet reached.

  
  
  Conclusion: I anticipated EUR/USD to stay in a range this week:

  • Bullish: While EUR/USD remains above 1.300 level - targets @ 1.3183 / 1.3255 / 1.3296.

  • Bearish: While EUR/USD remains below 1.3140 level - targets @ 1.3065 / 1.3035 / 1.3018.

  Result: So far EUR/USD has moved exactly as forecasted: Bearish target 1.3065 reached, price approached 1.3035 before reversing and reached Bullish targets 1.3183 / 1.3255 and approached 1.3018 before stalling. ....
    Jan 3rd 2013

   

  
  USD/CHF Pullback Target @ 0.9143

   

  • Daily USD/CHF is currently in an uptrend from the previous Bullish 3-wave pattern from 0.9083 level.

  • USD/CHF is current making a new Bearish corrective 3-wave pattern from 0.9215 level.

  
  
  
  Conclusion:

  • Bullish: USD/CHF is in a reversal uptrend from 0.9083 with targets @ 0.9268 / 0.9341 /0.9383

  • Bearish: When USD/CHF completes the corrective 3-wave pattern from 0.9215 level - first target shall be @ 0.9143.

  • In this scenario USD/CHF remains Bullish with a risk of a potential pullback to 0.9143 level.

  • This also causes a risk of a pullback on both the daily EUR/USD & GBP/USD.

  Result: USD/CHF remained above 0.9083 level and all anticipated targets were reached:

  Bullish move to first target was met @ 0.9268. The pullback also happened with the Bearish target met @ 0.9143.

  Price then turned Bullish again and reached targets @ 0.9268 / 0.9341 /0.9383. ....
  
  

  Dec 28th 2012

   

  
  EUR/USD potential Bullish pull-back - target @ 1.3258 level

   

  • EUR/USD on the 15 minute chart has completed a harmonic pattern @ 1.3167 level.
  
  Conclusion: While the pair remains above 1.3167 level I anticipate a potential Bullish pull-back - Target @ 1.3258 level.
  
  
  Result: As anticipated EUR/USD remained above 1.3167 level and reached target @ 1.3258 level before reversing. ....
  
  USD/CHF Pattern Reversal - Target @ 9383 level

   

   

  • Daily USD/CHF has completed a corrective 3-wave pattern @ 0.9038 level.
  • The pair has also completed a harmonic pattern @ 0.9038 level.
  
  Conclusion:While the pair remain above 0.9038 level I anticipate a Bullish reversal - Target @ 9383 level.

  Result: As anticipated the pair remained above 0.9038 level and price reached Bullish reversal target @ 9383 level. ....
   

  Dec 27th 2012

   

  
  EUR/USD completed corrective 3-wave pattern

   

   

  • Weekly EUR/USD completed a 5-wave trend @ 1.2039 level.
  • The pair has also recently completed a corrective 3-wave pattern @ 1.3310 level.

   

   

  Conclusion:While the pair remain below the 1.3310 level I anticipate a Bearish reversal - Target @ 1.2798 level.
  
  Result: Target met on 26th March ....
   

  Dec 21st 2012

   

  
  AUD/USD makes Bullish Harmonic Crab Pattern

  
  Conclusion: I anticipate a short-term pull-back to the 0.5 Fibonacci level - Target 1.0499.

  • AUD/USD has made a Bullish Harmonic Crab Pattern on the 1 hour chart

  
  
  
  Result: AUD/USD opened with a weekend gap-up to exactly reach the suggested target @ 1.0499 before reversing. ....
  
  Dec 18th 2012

   

  
  USDCAD Daily Chart

   

  • USD/CAD Medium-Term Target - 0.9935

  • USD/CAD is still in a Bearish Trend, but the pair has completed a measured move from the recent trend line breakout.

  • The pair has also created a Bullish Harmonic BAT Pattern (D=0.9821).

  • Daily Stochastic is oversold.

  Conclusion: I anticipate a bullish reversal up to the 0.50 Fibonacci retracement of Harmonic BAT Pattern at around the 0.9935 level.

  Result: As anticipated USD/CAD reversed to reach the target @ 0.9935 level. ....
  
  GBPUSD  Daily Chart

  • GBP/USD Medium-Term Target - 1.5955

  • GBP/USD is still in a Bullish Trend, and has nott yet completed the recent trend line breakout - target at 1.6250 - 1.6275.

  • As daily Stochastic is overbought, I anticipate a sharp Bearish reversal when the measured move completes.

  Conclusion: The pair could return sharply back to the channel line, and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the larger trend giving a medium-term target of around the 1.5955 level.

  Result: As anticipated GBP/USD continued in a Bullish Trend and reached above target at 1.6250 and 1.6275 before a reversal back towards the channel line, price reached my target @ 1.5955 level exactly. ....
  
  USDCHF  Daily Chart

  • USD/CHF Medium-Term Target - 0.9450

  • USD/CHF is still in a Bearish Trend, and has not yet completed the recent trend line breakout - target at 0.9132 - 0.9120.

  • As daily Stochastic is oversold, I anticipate Bearish reversal when the measured move completes.

  • On the upside the pair could find strong resistance where the previous Support and Resistance lines meet at around the 0.9254 level before the pair move higher.

  Conclusion: A breakout of the resistance at the 0.9254 level in the medium-term could see the pair reach the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the larger trend to around the 0.9450 level.

  Result: First move..

  Target met on 16th March..
  
  EURUSD  Daily Chart

   

  • EUR/USD Target - 1.284\1.280

  • EUR/USD is still in a Bullish Trend, and has not yet completed the recent trend line breakout - target at 1.3284 - 1.3380.

  
  Conclusion: As daily Stochastic is overbought, I anticipate a sharp Bearish reversal when the measured move completes, in the medium-term the pair could return sharply back to the channel line and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the larger trend to around the 1.284 - 1.280 level.

  Result: First move..

  Target met on 17th March.. ....